Almost every Tuesday is primary day somewhere, it seems, and today Wyoming and Washington state get the honors.
The most hotly contested primary race of interest is the Republican race in Wyoming's at-large U.S. House district, where Republican Barbara Cubin's retirement has created an exciting open-seat race.
Orange to Blue Democrat Gary Trauner is the Democratic nominee, while four Republicans (two of them serious candidates) squared off for the nomination.
The GOP nomination, contested primarily between wealthy rancher Mark Gordon and Wyoming State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, has apparently won by 9 points, 46% to 37%.
That's just fine for Trauner, as he won't have to face Gordon's self-funding capabilities ($1 million of his $1.2 million raised was out of pocket), nor his favorable profile (seems to be a good fit for Wyoming, as a rancher).
Lummis has won statewide office before, it is true. But she also has a longstanding feud with popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal, which may spur the Governor to campaign harder for Trauner this cycle than he did during Trauner's narrow 2006 loss.
As mcjoan noted earlier, this was an exceptionally ugly primary, and there may well be bad blood between Lummis' supporters, and Gordon's, for several months. Also, both GOP candidates have dumped their financial resources into this race, while Trauner, running unopposed, sits on a nice nest egg of $660,000.
Meanwhile, it is also primary day in Washington State, and the inaugural primary for their "top two" system. This is somewhat similar to Louisiana's old "jungle primary" in that the top two finishers advance to the general, regardless of party. However, unlike the jungle primary, you can't win the whole thing by getting 50% on election day; it is a real primary election.
There are no real competitive primaries at the federal level in Washington state this time out, so this is essentially a beauty contest for general-election candidates. Turnout is expected to be high for a primary in Washington, due to their mail-in ballot system. As such, some were touting the Washington primaries as a preview of the general election matchups between Governor Christine Gregoire and her Republican opponent Dino Rossi, and between Republican Rep. Dave Reichert and his opponent, Orange to Blue Democrat Darcy Burner.
If they are previews of the general, however, we haven't learned anything we didn't know before; both election are going to be very close.
Gregoire is currently edging Rossi, 48% to 46%. She will likely finish the night with a slim lead as well.
Meanwhile, Burner trails Reichert, 47% to 44%, as of last note. However, the total Democratic vote in WA-08 currently exceeds 50%, which is good news.
Given the vagaries of the mail-in system, it's unlikely that results will be official until tomorrow or even Thursday. So good night to you all; we will post the percentages for WA-Gov and WA-08 as soon as we can.
In a previous diary I mentioned underdog Oksana Chusovitina, a 33-year-old mother competiting in Women's Gymnastics for the German team. Oksana is originally from Uzbekistan, but moved to Germany in 2002 to seek treatment for her young son who had been diagnosed with Leukemia.
Oksana began competing with the German gymnastics team and using her prize money to pay for her son's treatment. She also received gifts and donations from other gymnasts around the world. Her son's treatment was successful and he is now in remission.
In 2006 Oksana officially became a citizen of Germany, where she ultimately earned a spot on the Women's Gymnastics team for the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. During the Women's Gymnastics prelims Oksana qualified to compete in the individual events on the vault. Last night she took silver in the event.
Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee emerged from the GOP nomination process as the leaders of their respective GOP factions. Huckabee represents the social conservatives. He aspires to speak for the evangelicals, who reportedly make up 25% of the electorate. Romney represents the business side of the GOP. He is the consummate executive and as a former CEO is the GOP’s possible poster boy for someone to fix the economy. These two factions are warring for the chance to have someone from their camp land as the McCain VP and the fight has major long-term implications for the party.
Announcing a running mate via text messages is only the latest indication that the Obama campaign is really the first 21st century campaign in American politics. Not only is it an absolutely brilliant way to have active voters volunteer what is probably their most reliable contact info (you can gloss over an email, ignore a call via caller ID, but text messages cry out to be read), but it also provides the campaign with an immediate way of contacting (read: mobilizing) thousands of voters in an instant.
That said, using a new medium to make the announcement raises questions. A friend writes via email:
So what do you all think the text message will be? Will it be quick and easy: "Biden" or text-hip: "BO <3 Kaine" or more formal: "Barack chooses Sen. Evan Bayh (IN) as VP"</p>
Years ago AU Political Scientist Allan Lichtman (Disclaimer: He ran for US Senate in MD as Democrat in 2006, but lost the primary to the eventual winner, Senator Ben Cardin) created The Keys to the Presidency. Based on complicated statistical research, Lichtman uses these keys to predict the winners of presidential elections. He claims that it has worked for every election since 1861.
(One key point: It predicts popular vote winners, not electoral college winners. So while it "worked" in 1876, 1888, and 2000, the electoral college said otherwise.)
He and Richardson can now fight over secretary of state.
So who's left? Assuming slotted speakers at the DNC are not the Veep, then Kaine is out. He's speaking Thursday night before Gore and Obama. Kerry is speaking Wednesday.
Who's that leave? Daschle, Sebelius, and "dark horse".
Of course, slotted speakers can always be rescheduled...
With the campaign stuck in summer doldrums, and the speculation about Barack's vice-president at a fever-pitch, all signs point to a surprise so startling, and utterly unexpected, that announcing it Friday evening would drive up interest and coverage for a week!
That's right--the Vice President will be Hillary Clinton.
Many of us are in the late summer doldrums and getting a bit edgy about where the state of the race lays. We've seen McCain attack and Barack act cool. We've also pointlessly obssessed over national daily tracking polls and every state poll that comes out.
But whats probably infuriated us the most is the tenor of the campaign from McCain, the complicit media to ingore the clear hypocrisy of the McCain myth versus the McCain man and Obama's seemingly refusal to hit back hard.
We've come to realize the media, which we hate to admit is incredibly important in helping citizens reach their decisions about whom they vote for, will NOT go after McCain. I mean 'He was a POW for 5 and a half years!!!!' after all.
Welcome back for more speculation! Today continues the new final series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.
This series began with a new top 14 list of names I considered most likely to be named Obama's v.p. running mate, and we'll eliminate the bottom vote-getter each day until there is a winner, or a real-life winner is named by Obama. Starting today, candidates will be listed in order of votes from the previous poll, from most to least, so we'll have some idea of preference in this thread's voting should Obama decide before there is a series winner. Sens. Evan Bayh (IN) and Jack Reed (RI) were eliminated in the previous round.
Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to state their name, unless you have further comments. I'm happy to hear all ideas in this open thread, and I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.
Sorry if this is poorly writen, but I really wanted to be the first to get it out.
I can't believe Obama would just blurt this out. But evidently, Barack has indicated who is VP will be. Obviously it is a bit annoying because I cannot imagine Obama deserting the big names.
As we all anticipate Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential pick and as we play the veep-sweaps and as some of us, state how certain choices will be great while others will be horrible. Some have even said that some possibilities might even cause us to lessen our degrees of support for Obama; I want to make a point, using a thought exercise. Let’s travel through an alternate history. In this history we elected a person, who for most Kossacks, would be one of the worst possible Vice Presidents. How would the world have changed?
The fictional Vice President I am referring to is, if you hadn’t guessed, Joe Lieberman. In my alternate history, I am assuming that the SCOTUS allowed the Florida recount to proceed and as a result Al Gore and Joe Lieberman won the Electoral College and were sworn in January of 2001. Okay, I think for most of us – Joe Lieberman is far worse than any of the names being mentioned this year as VP. So if he and Al had been declared the winners in 2000, where would we be today?
Still others disliked Biden as the choice for Vice President.
All three were the subject of significant trial balloons over the last three weeks, with the most significant being the possibility of Biden over the past 36 hours.
But with the developments today, I am now convinced Barack Obama has decided to pick....
Landrieu has been up on the air the last several weeks, pounding the crap out of Kennedy, and the results are pretty obvious. Remember, this is the GOP's only chance to pick up a Senate seat this year. And their one and only chance is currently a 16-point deficit. Yup, it's one of those years for those guys.
I mean, this is where this race ranks, per Rasmussen's latest polling:
State Incumbent Margin over challenger
NM Open (R) -26
VA Open (R) -21
AK Stevens (R) -13
CO Open (R) -8
NH Sununu (R) -6
GA Chambliss (R) +6
OR Smith (R) +6
MN Coleman (R) +7
MS Wicker (R) +9
KY McConnell (R) +10
NC Dole (R) +11
TX Cornyn (R) +11
ME Collins (R) +15
LA Landrieu (D) +16
Rasmussen hasn't polled the Idaho or Oklahoma Senate races, or we probably would've seen both those states tighter than Louisiana. But per Rasmussen polling alone, there are 13 Senate races tighter than the Louisiana one. (South Dakota, their other supposed target, puts Republicans at a 25-point disadvantage against Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson.)
Recently, a fair number of high-profile progressive bloggers have been, to put it mildly, flipping out about Barack Obama's campaign style and his chances in November. Josh Marshall thinks there need to be consistent lines of attack against McCain. John Aravosis thinks Team Obama is in a bubble and this is feeling like the Democratic campaigns of the past. Matt Stoller thinks it's time for message testing to find the attack that'll work on McCain.
All of these are smart people who want Obama to win and see it slipping away. But they are failing to totally account for the X factor of the election, which is going virtually unmentioned throughout the blogosphere - the historic ground effort that the Obama campaign is banking on to win. It is not without peril, but it is a very new thing, and I think we have to understand it if we want to understand the twists and turns of this election.
NC-Sen: Kay Hagan is out with her second TV ad of the cycle:
Hagan is trying to close a relatively narrow gap between herself and incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Polling was tight prior to Dole's June ad blitz, and has seemed to trend slightly up for Hagan in recent weeks as she herself has hit the airwaves. Another positive bio ad such as this one should help the state Senator improve her statewide profile as the general election heats up.
CO-Sen: The DSCC can't get enough of "big oil" ads, it seems. Here's their latest, against Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer:
Meanwhile, the infamous Freedom's Watch is taking to the airwaves themselves, attacking Schaffer's Democratic opponent, Rep. Mark Udall.
Freedom’s Watch, a conservative advocacy group, launched ads Tuesday in Colorado hitting the Democratic Senate nominee, Rep. Mark Udall, for missing a key vote last month on energy policy to attend a fundraiser back home.
The 30-second ad, with amusing graphics and whimsical music, shows gasoline prices rising as a narrator refers to the Congressman as "Skip Udall."
Tim Pearson, deputy communications director for Freedom’s Watch, said the ad buy was "substantial," though he declined to provide specifics. It is airing in the Denver, Colorado Springs and Grand Junction media markets.
The IE buys are only going to get bigger and more frequent over the next few months, on both sides.
AK-Sen: Guess what! Ted Stevens thinks he's above the law!
In 1989, Congress amended the Ethics In Government Act of 1978 to require members of Congress to file financial disclosure reports including income and honoraria exceeding $200. The bill gave the Attorney General the authority to take action against anyone who falsifies the financial disclosure report. Stevens joined the rest of the Senate in a voice vote in favor of the legislation.
Either he's forgotten about this law he supported...or he just doesn't care, now that it's applied to him. As he is trying to get his case thrown out of court:
Last week, lawyers for Senator Ted Stevens filed several motions asserting that Senators are above the law and deserve special treatment. Specifically, the defense explained that since the Department of Justice is part of the executive branch, they cannot investigate Stevens or interview his staff since they are part of the legislative branch. Stevens’ attorneys went as far to say that only Congress can discipline a Senator who violates the law by lying on the financial disclosure forms. However, Stevens voted for the legislation which established the financial disclosure forms. In essence, Stevens’ defense is that legislation he supported is now unconstitutional, and therefore the case should be dismissed.
This is not altogether surprising really. If Stevens had any respect for the rule of law, he wouldn't be in this nasty situation to begin with.
ME-Sen: Down East has a new article on the state of the Maine Senate race. In general, it's a sober analysis of what looks to be a pretty tough, though viable, race for Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, who faces off against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins.
Allen starts at a disadvantage in name recognition, polling and money (though the DSCC has committed a great deal of money to this race, which should even the financial playing field somewhat). That said, Allen is quoted one major advantage: his ground game.
The grassroots is the only area where Allen has an undisputed edge in this race. The Democratic Party has 29 offices open across the state, with more opening every week, and has a dedicated and energized volunteer base, due in part to the excitement caused by Barack Obama's presidential campaign. The Republican Party has just four offices and many fewer volunteers.
The Democrats are working on registering thousands of new voters and making sure they get to the polls, an effort that could shift the political landscape in the Senate race. However, with less competitive races in Maine for president and for the other congressional seats, which democrats will likely win, Maine's ticket-splitting voters may choose to make Collins the one Republican they support. In the latest poll, 29% of Democratic voters abandoned Allen.
It's likely that there will be at least a decent number of ticket splitters this fall in Maine, but
House Races
FL-24: Republican Rep. Tom Feeney must be awfully nervous about his electoral prospects against former Democratic state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.
Because Feeney has paid for robocalls across the district in support of Kosmas' primary opponent, fellow Democrat and 2006 loser Clint Curtis.
The third-term lawmaker from Oviedo -– who defeated Curtis in 2006 -– has paid for "tens of thousands" of robo-calls to Democratic voters on behalf of Curtis, who is running again for the House District 24 seat, this time as an underdog in the Democratic primary against former state lawmaker Suzanne Kosmas.
In calls to Central Florida residents, a volunteer for the Feeney campaign lauds Curtis and calls him the "only Democrat taking on Tom Feeney that has consistently opposed the war in Iraq." At the end of the call, the female volunteer said the calls were "paid for by Tom Feeney for Congress."
This isn't the first time that Feeney has tried to help a challenger. In a release sent a few weeks ago, Feeney touted independent candidate Gaurav Bhola as "the only candidate talking sense" at a candidate debate that Feeney never attended.
A clip of the robo call was provided by the Kosmas campaign. Paul Dunn, her campaign manager, called it one of Feeney’s "dirty tricks" and said it was proof that Feeney fears Kosmas, who has more money on hand than the incumbent.
Yes, I think it's safe to say that Feeney's running scared. Given that he's mucking about in Democratic primaries, you know.
Fortunately, given Curtis' bankroll of $7,000, it's highly unlikely Feeney will get his wish.
TX-07: Democrat Michael Skelly's newest ad:
OH-02: Daredevil Jean Schmidt's latest scandal: she and her sisters own a multi-million dollar property in Cincinnati, via their late father's real estate company, on which they pay all of $95 per year in property taxes.
For how come? Because they grow a few thousand dollars' worth of soybeans on the property. The property isn't primarily used as farmland...but naming it as such saves them a boatload, it seems:
The Schmidt campaign vehemently denies any wrongdoing (they do pretty much everything vehemently, in fact), and legally, they're almost certainly covered. Still, as the video notes, it sure doesn't look good.
NY-26: Finally, the first ad from Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers:
And not a moment too soon for Wyoming voters who have been subjected to one damned ugly Republican battle. There are four names on the Republican primary ballot today, but the battle is between just two of them: Mark Gordon, a rancher and businessman, and Cynthia Lummis, former state representative and state treasurer.
The going got ugly in the race months ago, when an anonymous flier started circulating around the state that detailed Gordon's past contributions to Democratic candidates and his past membership on the board of the Sierra Club. A follow up flier released by the Lummis campaign echoes the charge.
Lummis' flier notes Gordon was a board member of the Sierra Club and describes the group as a "left-wing environmental organization" that opposed a coal-fired power plant in the Gillette area.
"As a member of the Sierra Club board, Mark Gordon helped them! Just what kind of Republican is he?" read the Lummis flier.
Not to be outdone, Gordon has gone on tv with his own nasty ad.
"When you find yourself in a hole, you stop digging," says the voice over the image of the digging girl, whose blond hair resembles Lummis'. "Career politicians like Cynthia Lummis just don't get it. She voted to increase taxes on gasoline, supported raising taxes to balance the state budget and opposed tax relief for veterans.
"Cynthia Lummis will dig a deeper hole, not get us out of the one we're already in."
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Orange to Blue candidate Gary Trauner is unopposed, and he's kept up his grassroots, retail campaign. He's just completed a state-wide trip, having gone to all 23 county fairs. He's likely to see some dividend from this very ugly Republican battle.
Oliver Walter, Arts and Sciences dean at the University of Wyoming and a political science professor, said the ultimate beneficiary of the negative Republican campaigning might be neither Gordon nor Lummis, but Gary Trauner.
"The more contention, the greater chance he has," Walter said Tuesday.
Professor Walter isn't the only one who thinks so. The editorial board of the Casper Star-Tribune seems to be really wanting to root for the Republicans in November, but can't help saying
At a time when the economy is in a downturn, the country still doesn't have a national energy policy, and we're mired in a war in Iraq, aren't there more relevant issues to discuss?....
[W]e'd like to remind both candidates that it's their party's nomination they're seeking, and Republicans already have their work cut out for them in the general election. Democrat Gary Trauner, who lost to incumbent Rep. Barbara Cubin by only about 1,000 votes in 2006, doesn't face any opposition in this year's primary. He's effectively been running for the office for four years, and he has built a solid campaign network.
Trauner also has an advantage over his eventual GOP opponent: He'll be a member of the majority party in the House. A freshman in the minority party won't be operating from a position of strength.
Gary has a lot of advantages over his eventual GOP opponent. Whether it's Gordon or Lummis (or maybe one of two the dark horses on the ballot who benefit from the Lummis/Gordon death spiral) Trauner faces in November, he's got a strong grassroots army and the fundraising to show for it.
Gary Trauner, Democratic candidate for U.S. House, has raised more than $1 million so far in the election cycle and will carry more than $660,000 into the general election.... Trauner said the totals show his message is resonating with Wyoming voters.
"The grassroots is excited about my race," he said. "We have orders of magnitude more Wyoming contributors than the entire other side combined, so clearly people believe in what we are trying to do."...
Republican candidate Cynthia Lummis infused her campaign with an additional $50,000 in personal funds Aug. 4, after filing her pre-primary campaign finance report. Lummis detailed the donation in an addendum to that report. Lummis raised about $110,000 in the last month, including her own contributions, and about $480,000 for the election cycle. She carries about $220,000 into the final week of the race for the Republican nomination....
Republican Mark Gordon of Buffalo kicked an additional $60,000 into his campaign Wednesday, according to an addendum filed with the Federal Election Commission, bringing his total contributions to his campaign to almost $1.1 million. Gordon has raised about $1.2 million and is carrying a little less than $200,000 into the final week of the primary....
Actually, that "raised" figure for Gordon should be clarified--he has self-funded to the tune of more than $1 million in this primary, and Lummis about $67K. So if you can judge enthusiasm in Wyoming by where the people are putting their money, Trauner is in good shape for November. That, combined with the baseline poll Research 2000 conducted in May, means that Dick Cheney's old seat could most definitely be in danger of turning Blue.
By now many bloggers are familiar with issue as to whether John McCain's Cross in the Sand Story is really a good story that was quite simply lifted from the Gulag Achipelago, a book written by one of McCain's own heros, Alexander Solzynitzhn.
One of the things people have been trying to do is to simply pinpoint when the story supposedly took place as well as to determine the first time the story was recounted by McCain.
In the process of trying to satisfy my own curiosity, I came across some interesting tidbits I thought I'd share.
